Messages

241

Metals / Gold heads for fourth monthly gain on slowdown, trade worries

« on: August 31, 2019, 08:08:12 PM »

Gold prices fell on Friday on a slight recovery in equities markets and Treasury yields but was on track for a fourth-straight monthly gain as fears of a global recession and uncertainty on U.S.-China trade relations drove investors to safe havens.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $1,520.40 per ounce and has gained 7.4% so far this month. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.5% at $1,529.40.

The market is awaiting news on the trade front, said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.

“At the moment, gold market is focused on impact in terms of global growth and whether we’ll continue to see central banks around the world easing monetary policy,” Cooper added.

Chinese and U.S. trade negotiating teams are maintaining effective communication, a day after both sides discussed the next round of in-person negotiations in September, China’s foreign ministry said on Friday.

On Thursday, China’s commerce ministry said a September round of meetings was being discussed by the two sides, but added it was important for Washington to cancel a tariff increase.

Positive signs on the trade front also lifted world stocks to a one-week high, limiting bullion’s upside.

“Gold will have a very high beta to any reduction in trade tensions given that they have driven so much of its rally,” OANDA analyst Jeffrey Halley wrote in a note.

Escalation in the trade war between the world’s biggest economies and heightened fears over a global downturn contributed to a rise of more than $100 for gold in August.

A recent inversion of the U.S. yield curve, where short-dated yields are running above long-dated ones, has also unsettled investors as it often precedes a recession.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central bank are widely expected to cut rates next month to stimulate their economies.

Elsewhere, silver fell 0.2% to $18.21 per ounce, on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since June 2016, gaining 12% so far in August.

“Silver will be volatile going forward and is more likely to come under pressure when we see prices rising given that the industrial picture looks a little bit weak going forward,” Standard Chartered’s Cooper said.

Meanwhile, consumers in top Asian hubs sold physical gold holdings this week to cash in on high prices, with many opting for cheaper silver.

Spot platinum rose 1.3% to $928.05 per ounce, after hitting a near 16-month high, while palladium jumped 4.1% to $1,535.45 per ounce after hitting a one-month peak of $1,504.71 earlier.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/gold-markets-us-china-trade-tensions-in-focus.html

242

US Stocks / Trump’s tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese imports hit at midnight

« on: August 31, 2019, 08:03:44 PM »

Barring an unlikely agreement or a presidential tweet, it will soon be 15% more expensive for U.S. companies to import everything from milk to diapers to sports equipment from China.

Tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese goods are set to go into effect at midnight ET. While some duties have been delayed and some items have been removed from the original list of $300 billion Chinese imports, many everyday grocery items and household staples will still be targeted beginning Sunday, according to an official list that spans 122 pages.

Chinese retaliatory tariffs ranging from 5% to 10% on a portion of $75 billion U.S. goods also are scheduled to go into effect Sunday.

The newest round of tariffs on Chinese goods are consumer-focused and will cost the average American household $1,000 a year, J.P. Morgan estimated. More than 160 industry groups have condemned new tariffs on China and the escalation of the trade war. Furthermore, over 30% of US companies are blaming tariffs for disappointing second quarter profits, according a Wells Fargo analysis.

Yet, President Donald Trump claimed “badly run and weak companies” are blaming his tariffs on China for difficulties they face.

Trump has threatened higher punitive duties after this round of tit-for-tat tariffs, but China softened its stance this week, saying it’s willing to resolve the trade war with a “calm attitude” and indicating it won’t retaliate immediately.

The president said the two sides had trade talks on Thursday “at a different level,” but no details were released from the White House on the discussion. The two countries are also set to meet face to face in early September in Washington.

The trade battle between the world’s two largest economies has dragged on for more than a year and a half. China appears to be playing the long game, accelerating efforts to reduce its reliance on the U.S. while strengthening its domestic market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/31/trumps-tariffs-on-112-billion-of-chinese-imports-hit-at-midnight.html

243

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« on: August 13, 2019, 06:47:27 AM »

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244

Canadian Stocks / Inter Pipeline confirms takeover offer, says it isn't negotiating

« on: August 11, 2019, 04:37:53 PM »

CALGARY -- Inter Pipeline Ltd. () confirmed Friday afternoon it received a "proposal" to purchase the company, in a statement issued at the behest of regulators a few hours after executives refused to discuss the matter on a conference call with analysts.

At 3 p.m. EDT, about an hour after its stock was halted from trading pending news, the Calgary-based midstream company issued a brief statement in response to a request from the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, or IIROC, confirming the offer had been made, but giving no details about the date, price or the identity of the bidder.

"While it is the company's policy not to comment on market speculation or rumours, Inter Pipeline confirms that it received an unsolicited, non-binding, conditional and indicative proposal to purchase the company," the statement said, "but it is not in negotiations with any third party, nor is there any agreement, understanding or arrangement with respect to any such transaction."

It added it won't say any more about the matter unless it determines that disclosure is warranted or legally required.

An article in the Globe and Mail on Thursday quoted unnamed sources as saying Inter had rejected a $30 per share cash offer from an unidentified bidder. The story was linked by analysts to a nine per cent Inter stock price surge to $23.64 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday.

Inter shares rose four per cent to $24.60 by noon EDT on Friday and continued to rise after trading was restarted, closing at $24.81, up $1.17 or just under five per cent for the day.

On a morning conference call to discuss second-quarter results, both CEO Christian Bayle and chief financial officer Brent Heagy refused to answer analyst questions about the story.

"The board understands very clearly what its fiduciary duties are and the board would carefully consider any credible offer and determine if it's in the best interest of shareholders," said Bayle, after an analyst asked whether the company would typically feel obligated to tell shareholders about a takeover offer.

"Regarding whether you need to disclose something or not, that would really depend on the circumstances ... and the board in consultation with legal and financial advisers would decide whether disclosure is appropriate."

The executives did provide detail about a separate announcement Thursday after markets closed that the company is putting its European bulk petroleum storage business on the block -- it has operations in the U.K., Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Netherlands and Ireland with about 37 million barrels of storage capacity.

The sale formed part of the rationale for buying NuStar Energy's European storage business for $354 million last fall because its U.K. and Netherlands terminals fit well with its existing European storage assets and made a better package, Bayle said.

If a sale is successful, the proceeds would be used to pay down debt and help finance the midstream Calgary-based company's $3.5-billion Heartland Petrochemical Complex project now being constructed northeast of Edmonton.

"We've always had in the back of our minds that some sort of portfolio management process would be attractive in terms of funding our large capital growth platforms, ever since we announced HPC," Bayle said on the call.

"We were not simply buying NuStar and selling NuStar, we bought NuStar and now we're selling a platform."

In a research note, analyst Nate Heywood of AltaCorp Capital pointed out the European storage assets deliver implied annual adjusted earnings of $112 million and are listed by Inter as carrying a net book value of $1.2 billion and total asset value of $1.6 billion, suggesting the sale could relieve the company's reliance on a $1.2 billion credit facility.

In its second-quarter results news release out Thursday, Inter reported spending $287 million on Heartland in the quarter to take total capital incurred so far to $1.6 billion.


It said 1,200 construction workers were on site at the end of June building the project designed to convert cheap and plentiful Alberta propane into 525,000 tonnes per year of the plastic polypropylene.

Inter reported record second-quarter net income of $260 million on Thursday, nearly double the $136 million it declared in the same period of 2018, with the increase mainly resulting from a one-time $144-million provision from the staged reduction in the Alberta corporate income tax rate from 12 to eight per cent by 2022.

Inter also reported a slight rise in revenue to $642 million from $631 million and a decrease in its core pipeline volumes to 1.34 million barrels per day from 1.38 million bpd a year earlier.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/inter-pipeline-confirms-takeover-offer-says-it-isn-t-negotiating-1.1299758

245

US Stocks / Goldman Sachs cuts growth forecast as trade war triggers recession fears

« on: August 11, 2019, 03:55:08 PM »

The U.S.-China trade war is going to have a larger impact on growth than Goldman Sachs originally estimated.

The firm lowered its fourth-quarter growth forecast by 20 basis points to 1.8%, citing a larger than-expected impact of recent trade war events.

“We have increased our estimate of the growth impact of the trade war,” said Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius in a note to clients Sunday. “The drivers of this modest change are that we now include an estimate of the sentiment and uncertainty effects and that financial markets have responded notably to recent trade news.”

The trade war between the U.S. and China escalated in recent weeks after Trump’s surprise announcement of 10% tariffs on the remaining $300 billion in Chinese imports that had eluded duties. Markets had their worst day of the year on Monday after China let its currency weaken, crossing the 7 yuan-per-dollar threshold and said it would halt imports of agricultural goods from the U.S. A drop in a currency’s value makes that country’s products cheaper on the international market.

Financial conditions, policy uncertainty, business sentiment and supply chain distribution will all contribute to lower-than-expected growth as a result of the trade war, said Hatzius.

“The policy uncertainty effect may lead firms to lower capex spending as they wait for uncertainty to resolve. Relatedly, the business sentiment effect of increased pessimism about the outlook from trade war news may lead firms to invest, hire, or produce less,” said Hatzius.

Hatzius also said supply chain disruption of rising input costs may lead U.S. firm to lower their domestic activity.

Due to the recent trade war events, Goldman now estimates a cumulative drag on GDP of 0.6%, including a 0.2% drag from the latest escalation.

“Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing,” said Hatzius.

Goldman Sachs said it expects the new round of tariffs to go through in September and it no longer expects a trade deal before the 2020 election.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/11/goldman-sachs-cuts-growth-forecast-as-trade-war-triggers-recession-fears.html

246

General Discussion / Poll Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

« on: August 11, 2019, 07:33:49 AM »

By Dimitri Kanellopoulos, BuyActive
A U.S. Stock Market Crash Is a Real Possibility
SELL SELL SELL
Trump's trade war with China could cause a stock market crash. We are asking people to take some gains and start hedging their portfolio.

247

Announcements, Site News / A U.S. Stock Market Crash Is a Real Possibility

« on: July 28, 2019, 03:52:34 PM »

By Dimitri Kanellopoulos, BuyActive
A U.S. Stock Market Crash Is a Real Possibility
SELL SELL SELL
Trump's trade war with China could cause a stock market crash. We are asking people to take some gains and start hedging their portfolio.

248

International stocks / Norway Savings Bank Cuts Holdings in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)

« on: July 28, 2019, 02:21:04 PM »

Norway Savings Bank reduced its position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) by 17.6% during the 2nd quarter, according to its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm owned 304 shares of the company’s stock after selling 65 shares during the quarter. Norway Savings Bank’s holdings in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust were worth $89,000 as of its most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Several other institutional investors and hedge funds have also recently modified their holdings of SPY. Murphy Pohlad Asset Management LLC purchased a new position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the fourth quarter valued at about $33,000. Riverview Trust Co purchased a new position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the fourth quarter valued at about $46,000. Nalls Sherbakoff Group LLC purchased a new position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the fourth quarter valued at about $55,000. Contravisory Investment Management Inc. raised its position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust by 43.2% in the second quarter. Contravisory Investment Management Inc. now owns 242 shares of the company’s stock valued at $71,000 after purchasing an additional 73 shares during the period. Finally, Peachtree Investment Partners LLC purchased a new position in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust in the fourth quarter valued at about $662,000.
About SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (the Trust) is a unit investment trust. The Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index (the Index). The Trust seeks to achieve this investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the Index (the Portfolio), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the Index.


Receive News & Ratings for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust Daily - Enter your email address below to receive a concise daily summary of the latest news and analysts' ratings for SPDR S&P 500

https://mayfieldrecorder.com/2019/07/27/norway-savings-bank-cuts-holdings-in-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-nysearcaspy.html

249

US Stocks / Passive investing boom could be causing a market bubble

« on: July 28, 2019, 02:14:54 PM »

Critics of passive investing argue it is inflating the prices of high-flying stocks such as Amazon and creating a bubble in those names. However, data compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the bubble may be forming elsewhere.

The firm found that real estate and utilities stocks are the two sectors that have benefited the most from the rise of passive investing vehicles including exchange-traded funds. ETFs hold more than 11% of the real estate sector and 9.8% of the utilities sector.

At the individual stock level, Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, a real estate company that invests in shopping centers, has had nearly 32% of its available stock, or float, taken over by ETFs, by far the most of any stock.

American States Water and California Water Service Group, meanwhile, have more than 23% of their float held by ETFs. Washington Real Estate Investment Trust has nearly 23% of its float held by ETFs. By comparison, Amazon and other big tech names have a much lower portion of their float held by ETFs.

Given which parts of the market have benefited the most from the rise of passive investing, investors should keep an eye on much smaller companies like Tanger for signs of a bubble forming.

“Tanger Factory Outlets is the real crowded theater, where investors might get trampled rushing for the exit,” said Will Geisdorf, ETF strategist at Ned Davis Research, in a note. “Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) is the poster child for the passive bubble,” he said.

Despite the massive ETF inflows it has experienced in recent years, Tanger has been a massively underperforming stock. The stock fell more than 20% in 2017 and 2018. This year, it is down more than 18%. By comparison, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) — which owns 13% of Tanger’s float — is up more than 13% year to date.

Geisdorf called Tanger the “outlet mall aristocrat” since it’s part of a group companies — SDY components — that has raised its dividend for at least 20 years. But that won’t last long, he says.

“Short sellers don’t think SKT will remain an aristocrat for long with 40% of its float held short,” Geisdorf said. If pressure on brick-and-mortar retailers intensifies, “SKT’s funds from operations will come under pressure, making it harder for the company to continue boosting its dividend.”

The rise of ETFs has given investors a way to invest in stocks at a lower cost than putting money into actively managed funds. It has also raised concern, however, of bubbles forming as market leadership has narrowed in recent years to just a few tech-related names.

Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Facebook are some of the best performers in recent years and hold the most weight in the S&P 500. However, ETFs own only a fraction of these stocks. Around 5% of Microsoft and Amazon’s floating shares are owned by ETFs. Meanwhile, ETFs own 5.4% and 4.8% of Apple and Facebook, respectively.

Perhaps one of the reasons stocks like Tanger aren’t on investors’ radars is because they are not nearly as popular. Geisdorf points out that Tanger is not a top 10 holding in any ETF, so it doesn’t appear on most fund fact sheets.

Tanger is “the stealth king of the passive bubble,” Geisdorf said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/27/passive-investing-boom-could-be-causing-a-market-bubble-but-not-in-the-stocks-you-would-expect.html

250

Canadian Stocks / Re: Canopy losses not a concern as it plans for edibles, extracts: Linton

« on: July 21, 2019, 08:32:59 PM »

Canopy also reported a sequential quarterly decline in recreational cannabis sales – $68.9 million in gross recreational sales in its fourth quarter, down from $71.6 million in the prior quarter – a rarity given the seemingly high demand for legal pot across Canada. Linton attributed the decline in recreational sales to the stilted rollout of legal pot shops across Canada as well as consumer tastes that focused on high tetrahydrocannabinol levels compared to the wide variety of THC and CBD Canopy made available on the market.

251

International stocks / Re: China says there will be no trade deal unless existing tariffs are stripped

« on: July 21, 2019, 08:31:34 PM »

However, Trump said after the G-20 meeting that the 25% tariffs currently imposed on $250 billion in Chinese goods will not be reduced.

252

US Stocks / Re: Boeing to take $4.9 billion hit in second quarter on 737 Max grounding

« on: July 21, 2019, 08:26:35 AM »

Boeing said it is assuming that the planes will return to service early in the fourth quarter of this year but warned that could also be later, a challenge for carriers during the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods.

253

US Stocks / Re: Boeing to take $4.9 billion hit in second quarter on 737 Max grounding

« on: July 19, 2019, 12:11:12 AM »

Boeing is set to report full second-quarter results and hold a call with analysts on Wednesday.

254

US Stocks / Boeing to take $4.9 billion hit in second quarter on 737 Max grounding

« on: July 19, 2019, 12:08:12 AM »

Boeing on Thursday said it will take a $4.9 billion charge in the second quarter due to the worldwide grounding of its 737 Max planes after two fatal crashes that killed 346 people.

The charge, which comes to $8.74 a share, is set to wipe out profits. Analysts expected the company to book a per-share profit of $1.80 for the second quarter, according to average estimates compiled by Refinitiv. The charge would reduce revenue and pre-tax earnings by $5.6 billion in the quarter, Boeing said.

The 737 Max jets have been grounded since mid-March and regulators have not said when they expect to allow the planes to fly again.
Boeing shares rose 2% in postmarket trading after the manufacturer disclosed the charge.

The Chicago-based manufacturer said the charge is an estimate of concessions for Max customers who have been left without the fuel-efficient planes during the peak summer travel period and through much of the fall with no end in sight to the grounding. It said it expects to compensate customers over several years but book the entire charge in the second quarter.

Regulators grounded the 737 Max fleets after the second of two fatal crashes within five months of one another. Investigators in the crashes — a Lion Air flight in Indonesia in October and an Ethiopian Airlines flight in March — implicated an automated stall-prevention feature on the jetliners. Boeing has developed a fix for the software but regulators haven’t yet signed off on it yet.

Boeing said it is assuming that the planes will return to service early in the fourth quarter of this year but warned that could also be later, a challenge for carriers during the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods.

The crisis prompted Boeing to slash protection of the Max jets by nearly a fifth to 42 a month and pause deliveries of the planes, which are piling up in storage facilities and even an employee parking lot. Boeing said its results will assume a production increase to 57 a month in 2020.

Airlines, including Southwest, American and United, have canceled thousands of flights and repeatedly pushed back the planes’ return to their schedules with little guidance on when the aircraft could take to the skies again.

Boeing is set to report full second-quarter results and hold a call with analysts on Wednesday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/18/boeing-to-take-4point9-billion-after-tax-hit-in-second-quarter-on-737-max-grounding.html

255

Announcements, Site News / Dear Investor

« on: July 16, 2019, 01:07:49 AM »

Dimitri Kanellopoulos

Dear Investor
I'd like to welcome you to BuyActive.com, the site designed to help as many people as possible make the right choices and decisions regarding stock trading. It is much easier to lose money in the stock market than to make any, but with a little effort and some guidance, it is possible to make a decent income.

Stock trading online is one of the hottest money-making opportunities today, but it is also a risky business with no guarantees. There is no limit to how much money you can accumulate trading on the stock market.

There are plenty of good stocks around, but also many poor performers. I'm going to share my knowledge to help you succeed. Each stock I recommend has been evaluated to give you maximum earnings with a minimum amount of risk.

Get the tools you need to make your dreams come true and start a new life today!

Best regards
Dimitri Kanellopoulos